The Champions League is the pinnacle of club football. It’s the trophy every football club in Europe wants to get their hands on. It’s also one of the toughest tournaments to win as the best of the best compete for glory. The likes of Real Madrid and Arsenal are keen to go all the way, but what are every Champions League side’s chances of lifting silverware in Munich?
This season saw the start of a new era of European football. All three competitions – the Champions League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference League – all began with a 36-team league stage. But now, with the quarter-finals on the horizon, the business end of the tournament, some would say, is upon us.
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UEFA Champions League Winners List
Established in 1955, the Champions League is the pinnacle of club football, with every winner writing themselves into history.
Opta have run all eight teams remaining in the 2024/25 Champions League through a simulation on 10,000 occasions to analyse each side’s chances – from Inter Milan to Aston Villa – of reaching each stage as well as predicting who will come out on top come at the end of May 2025.
Every 2024/25 Champions League Quarter-Final Fixture
Arsenal face a tough task in Real Madrid
With the round of 16 in the rearview mirror, only eight teams remain in the Champions League and there are some cracking matchups in the quarter-finals. Fresh off of eliminating Liverpool in the previous round, Paris Saint-Germain will take on Aston Villa, with the Premier League side enjoying their first Champions League campaign in decades. There’s a meeting of two of Europe’s powerhouses with Bayern Munich taking on Inter for a spot in the semi-finals.
Borussia Dortmund will have to overcome La Liga leaders Barcelona if they’re to progress in the competition. Hansi Flick’s side have been on fire across all competitions, though, and it won’t be easy for the Bundesliga club. Perhaps the tastiest tie of the round, however, is Arsenal vs Real Madrid. Los Blancos are a staple in the Champions League now, having won it a record 15 times. Mikel Arteta’s men have never got their hands on the trophy, but have one of the strongest squads in England and it is sure to be a fierce battle.
| Every 2024/25 Champions League Quarter-Final Fixtures |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain vs Aston Villa |
| Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan |
| Arsenal vs Real Madrid |
| Barcelona vs Borussia Dortmund |
Every Champions League Side’s Chances of Winning
Real Madrid aren’t the favourites
With just eight teams remaining in the Champions League, every side will understandably have started considering their chances of going all the way and lifting the iconic trophy. It won’t be easy for any of them, though, with tough fixtures facing them in the quarter-finals and then in the semi-finals should they advance, leading up to the all-crucial final at the Allianz Arena, Munich, at the end of May 2025. But which teams have the best chance of getting there? Let’s take a look at Opta’s calculations.
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Inter Milan, one of the eight teams to have won the Champions League-back-to-back, have been given a 51.5% chance of being one of the remaining four teams in the competition and a 27.8% chance of reaching the final in the German capital.
The Nerazzurri have been calculated to have a 13.8% chance of winning and only three teams have better odds: Barcelona, PSG and Arsenal.
Based in north London, the Gunners have never lifted Champions League glory but are looking to buck that trend this campaign. Opta, in aid of securing silverware under Arteta’s watchful eye, have given them a 15.6% chance to do so.
Despite being the reigning champions, Real Madrid’s and ponderous run of form – and tough quarter-final matchup with Arsenal – meant that Opta have insisted they have just a 12.2% chance of retaining their status as champions of Europe. Only Bayern Munich (10.8%), Aston Villa (3.7%) and Borussia Dortmund (1.5%) have a lower chance.
In terms of outright winners of this season’s iteration of Europe’s premier club competition, Barcelona are the favourites. The Catalan giants have had an excellent season so far this year, with Hansi Flick guiding them to a Copa del Rey final and the top of the La Liga table so far. Opta have given them a 44.3% chance of making it to the final and then a further 23.1% of going all the way and lifting the silverware.
PSG are in second place, with 19.3%, while Arsenal are just behind on 15.6%. while Inter Milan – runners-up in 2022/23 – are fourth favourites (13.8%). At the other end of the spectrum, Borussia Dortmund have the lowest odds at 1.5%.
| Every Champions League Side’s Chances of Winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Club | Semi-finals (%) | Final (%) | Winner (%) |
| Barcelona | 78.2 | 44.3 | 23.1 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 71.3 | 36.2 | 19.3 |
| Arsenal | 50.2 | 29.5 | 15.6 |
| Inter Milan | 51.5 | 27.8 | 13.8 |
| Real Madrid | 49.8 | 25.2 | 12.2 |
| Bayern Munich | 48.5 | 22.8 | 10.8 |
| Aston Villa | 28.7 | 9.1 | 3.7 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 21.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
All statistics per Opta Analyst – correct as of 08/04/25
