Manchester City may have scuppered their chances of winning another Champions League title under the stewardship of Pep Guardiola after falling to a 4–2 loss to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night at the Parc des Princes.
After earning a commanding two-goal lead, by virtue of goals from Jack Grealish and Erling Haaland in the 50th and 53rd minute, respectively, Luis Enrique’s side turned things up a notch in the second half and ran riot with a glut of goals.
Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, Joao Neves and Goncalo Ramos completed PSG’s remarkable turn-a-round in the second 45 and, as a result, the 2022/23 winners of Europe’s top table are currently sitting in 25th place.
Having won just two of their first seven, Manchester City have the chance to right their wrongs with a final league phase outing, at home against Belgian outfit Club Brugge, next week, in order to secure passage into the impending play-off round.
In this season’s new-look Champions League format, the top eight will advance directly into the Round of 16, while sides that finish between ninth and 24th will battle it out for the remaining eight spots by contesting in knockout phase play-offs.
At the time of writing, Guardiola’s side – who reigned victorious against Inter Milan in the final two years ago – are not inside the play-off spots and Opta’s supercomputer has predicted where they will finish following their test against Club Brugge.
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After Pep Guardiola labelled the PSG clash as a ‘must-win’, a 4-2 defeat leaves them in a perilous position heading into the final matchday.
Based off their xPoints (expected points tally), it has been predicted that Guardiola and his men will finish in 25th – outside the play-off spots – behind the likes of PSG, Benfica and Stuttgart, who all make it by the skin of their teeth.
Fellow Premier League outfit Liverpool, who face PSV Eindhoven on Matchday 8, are expected to finish top of the standings with an xPoints tally of 22.9. Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan make up the top eight.
The Premier League’s Aston Villa finish the league phase in ninth, on an xPoints tally of 14.9, and Unai Emery’s side are quickly followed by Atalanta and Lille. Arne Slot’s former club, Feyenoord, and Borussia Dortmund are also expected progress to the play-off phase.
Despite topsy-turvy campaigns thus far, European juggernauts Bayern Munich, Real Madrid – who are record winners of the competition – and Juventus could all book a spot in the play-offs. As do Celtic, Sporting CP and Club Brugge on 12.9, 11.8 and 11.7 xPoints, respectively.
| Opta Supercomputer – Champions League Table | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | xPoints | 1st (%) | Top 8 (%) | Play-off (%) | Eliminated (%) |
| Liverpool | 22.9 | 89.1 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Barcelona | 19.7 | 10.9 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Inter Milan | 18.4 | 0 | 97.7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Arsenal | 18.1 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| Atletico Madrid | 17.1 | 0 | 81.5 | 18.5 | 0 |
| AC Milan | 16.9 | 0 | 73.6 | 26.4 | 0 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 15.4 | 0 | 75.5 | 24.5 | 0 |
| Atalanta | 15.1 | 0 | 35.1 | 64.9 | 0 |
| Aston Villa | 14.9 | 0 | 52.6 | 47.4 | 0 |
| Lille | 14.9 | 0 | 33.1 | 66.9 | 0 |
| Bayern Munich | 14.6 | 0 | 7.9 | 92.1 | 0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 14.3 | 0 | 11.8 | 88.2 | 0 |
| Real Madrid | 14.0 | 0 | 2.9 | 97.1 | 0 |
| Feyenoord | 13.9 | 0 | 13.1 | 86.9 | 0 |
| Juventus | 13.9 | 0 | 0.8 | 99.2 | 0 |
| Stade Brestois | 13.8 | 0 | 7.3 | 92.7 | 0 |
| Monaco | 13.5 | 0 | 7.0 | 93.0 | 0 |
| Celtic | 12.9 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 11.9 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
| Sporting CP | 11.8 | 0 | 0 | 91.5 | 8.5 |
| Club Brugge | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 93.9 | 6.1 |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 11.7 | 0 | 0 | 86.0 | 14.0 |
| Stuttgart | 11.1 | 0 | 0 | 65.7 | 34.3 |
| Benfica | 10.9 | 0 | 0 | 83.6 | 16.4 |
| Manchester City | 10.1 | 0 | 0 | 63.8 | 36.2 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 8.9 | 0 | 0 | 15.3 | 84.7 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | 7.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 99.9 |
| Bologna | 5.9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Crvena zvezda | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| RB Leipzig | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Sparta Prague | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Sturm Graz | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Girona | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| RB Salzburg | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Young Boys | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| Slovan Bratislava | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
