Little-known stat shows how Rangers have got WORSE under Barry Ferguson – and how far the gap to Celtic really is

WHEN Barry Ferguson was given the Rangers job until the end of the season, reaction was mixed.

On the one hand, he is a bona fide club legend and his return to Ibrox would, if nothing else, inject some passion back into the place and he’d demand certain standards from the squad.

But on the other hand his previous experience in coaching and management was limited. His last job was with Alloa (which he left in 2022 after a poor run of results) and prior to that, he had only managed part-time players at Kelty Hearts and Clyde.

Ferguson found out quickly that this group of players simply weren’t up to scratch for Rangers – and a little-known stat has backed that up.

His dugout debut was at Rugby Park and he was able to lead the team to a 4-2 win but that performance wasn’t without its problems, with Clinton Nsiala hooked in the first half as Kilmarnock ran roughshod over the Gers back line.

With a packed out Ibrox for his first home game, Ferguson watched in despair as the Light Blues stuttered to a 2-1 defeat against Motherwell.

He masterminded an away victory over Jose Mourinho‘s Fenerbahce in the Europa League just a few days after that however and a week later they knocked them out on penalties after a 2-0 loss at Ibrox.

Indeed, Ferguson’s tenure has only underlined the theory that Rangers have been guilty of under-performing in the Premiership and over-performing in Europe.

Save for the thrilling 3-2 win over Celtic in the third Old Firm derby of the season however, and the 1-1 draw at Ibrox last weekend, perhaps.

Ferguson hasn’t been afraid to let rip at the players since being appointed interim boss, something predecessor Philippe Clement often shied away from.

He would point to data that suggested Gers were unlucky and results would soon turn but that never happened.

But now new data has shown that Rangers have in fact gotten WORSE on the park under Ferguson.

The expected goals stat (xG – a measure of how ‘good’ the chances a team create are) isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but as a metric, it does offer insight into how well a team is playing in front of goal.

For the season, Rangers are averaging 1.7 xG which is down from last season’s average of 1.9 in the league.

But it’s the xG difference which is even more eye-opening.

A lesser-known stat, xG difference shows the differential between chances created and conceded by a particular team.

Rangers have a xG this season of 0.83 – their lowest since the days of Pedro Caixinha, Graeme Murty and Jimmy Nicholl.

Not since Steven Gerrard‘s first season have Gers dipped below a differential of 0.9.

Moreover, since the change in manager, Rangers have now slumped to a NEGATIVE xG differential in the league.

And the trend line since Ferguson’s arrival shows a general decrease in chances created and an increase in chances conceded per game.

What makes it even more galling is that Celtic have a xG difference of 1.44 – almost double that of their Glasgow rivals.

Results aren’t much better too, with Ferguson winning just four of his 12 games in charge across all competitions, including three in the league.

With the Ibrox club set for a transformation not seen since the days of Graeme Souness once their new owners come in, whoever they appoint as head coach will have a massive task on his hands.

The gap to competing with Celtic hasn’t been this big since pre-Gerrard.

And the gap to overhauling them could depend just as much on what Brendan Rodgers does as the new Rangers regime does.