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Every 25/26 Premier League Club Ranked by How Difficult Their First 5 Fixtures Are

Data analysts have ranked every 25/26 PL club by how difficult their first 5 fixtures are

By  Matthew Guyett
52 – 66 minutes

 

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Manchester United have statistically been handed the toughest set of fixtures of all 20 teams to kick off the 2025-26 Premier League campaign.

Opta Analyst have revealed where every team participating in next season’s top-flight ranks regarding the difficulty of their first five fixtures. The Premier League officially announced the fixture list for the campaign on Wednesday (June 18).

Ruben Amorim just can’t seem to catch a break at Old Trafford following a dismal start to his reign, which saw United finish 15th last season. It doesn’t get any easier for the Red Devils as they start the upcoming campaign at home to title hopefuls Arsenal.

The Portuguese coach was able to end the season with a win over Aston Villa, although in controversial fashion amid a contentious refereeing decision. Unai Emery will be pleased to learn that his Villans have been handed the easiest set of fixtures.

Man Utd and Arsenal Handed Toughest 2025-26 PL Starts

Amorim and Arteta collide in the season’s opener

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Amorim won’t just come up against Mikel Arteta’s Gunners at the start of the season, as his troops have been handed a nightmare August-September period. They face, not one, but three of “the big six”, with games against Manchester City and Chelsea handing them an average opponent rating of 94.6.

Arsenal will be looking to make a statement regarding their title credentials and will do so against their potential rivals for the Premier League crown. The visit to Old Trafford is followed by games against champions Liverpool and a likely resurgent City. His side have an average opponent rating of 94.0 with encounters against Leeds United and Nottingham Forest also in the mix.

There were several surprise packages last season, including Bournemouth who kick their campaign off against Liverpool. Andoni Iraola’s Cherries’ five fixtures handed them a rating of 93.7, which also includes a trip to Thomas Frank’s Tottenham Hotspur.

Everton‘s first season in their new Hill Dickinson Stadium sees them face an average opponent rating of 93.4 in their first five outings. Brighton & Hove Albion are the first visitors at their Toffees’ new home and David Moyes also have a Merseyside Derby to deal with.

That game is one of the high-profile games Arne Slot will oversee in his first season defending the league title. Liverpool face an average rating of 93.3 which also includes a tricky trip to Newcastle United who they lost to in the Carabao Cup final.

Premier League Fixture Difficulty (Toughest Five)
Rank: Team: First Five Games Opponent Average Rating
1. Manchester United Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Burnley (H), Manchester City (A), Chelsea (H) 94.6
2. Arsenal Manchester United (A), Leeds United (H), Liverpool (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Manchester City (H) 94.0
3. Bournemouth Liverpool (A), Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Newcastle United (H) 93.7
4. Everton Leeds United (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (H), Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Aston Villa (H), Liverpool (A) 93.4
5. Liverpool Bournemouth (H), Newcastle United (A), Arsenal (H), Burnley (A), Everton (H) 93.3

Man City’s Reprisal Could Be Topsy-Turvy

Leeds given a challenging return to the top-flight

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Wolverhampton Wanderers staved off relegation, but Vitor Pereira will be without Matheus Cunha next season. He does have a decent start to contend with, handed an average rating of 93.1 opponents that include Bournemouth, Everton and Leeds, although City’s trip to Molineux could be a problematic beginning.

Newcastle United ended a 56-year wait for a trophy by claiming the Carabao Cup and that final re-occurs on the second matchweek. Liverpool are one of five opponents who give Eddie Howe’s side a 93.1 rating.

Leeds United have it hardest of all three promoted sides, becoming the first visitors at Everton’s new stadium. A 93.0 rating also represents a trip to the Emirates and a tussle with Champions League competing Newcastle.

The biggest underdog story of the 2024-25 campaign was undoubtedly Nottingham Forest, who just missed out on Champions League qualification. Nuno Espirito Santo will want to keep Evangelos Marinakis happy and a debut Europa Conference League campaign starts alongside an equally difficult league start amid tests against Palace and Arsenal.

Manchester City‘s stumble was remarkable, but they’ve taken no time rebuilding Guardiola’s squad with the likes of Rayan Cherki and Rayan Ait-Nouri arriving. Guardiola will want to storm into the new season against an opponent average of 92.7 and big wins over United, Tottenham and Arsenal would do that.

Premier League Fixture Difficulty (Testing Affairs)
Rank: Team: First Five Games Opponent Average Rating
6. Wolverhampton Wanderers Manchester City (H), Bournemouth (A), Everton (H), Newcastle United (A), Leeds United (H) 93.1
7. Newcastle United Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H), Leeds United (A), Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Bournemouth (A) 93.1
8. Leeds United Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle United (H), Fulham (A), Wolverhampton Wanderers (A) 93.0
9. Nottingham Forest Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), West Ham United (H), Arsenal (A), Burnley (A) 92.7
10. Manchester City Wolverhampton Wanderers (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H), Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Manchester United (H), Arsenal (A) 92.7
Premier League

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Brighton & Hove Albion impressed under Fabian Hurzeler and the young German coach will be keen to build on an eighth-placed finish. His side start with an opponent average rating of 92.4, facing City and Spurs could prove difficult though.

Thomas Frank will be out to prove he has what it takes to propel Tottenham Hotspur up the table after their poor 17th-placed finish. His Europa League winners won’t have it easy though, with a 92.4 average rating. A clash with City will be compelling given the Dane performed fairly well against Guardiola while at the Gtech.

Fulham were Liverpool’s bogey team last season and Marco Silva’s Cottagers start the new season against an average of 92.3 opposition. That includes the visit of Amorim’s Red Devils and a trip to Stamford Bridge at the end of August.

There is arguably no better way to claw your way into the Premier League and Sunderland‘s Wembley heroes won’t go toe-to-toe with any of the top five in their first five outings. Regis Le Bris’ first taste of the top-flight is handed a 91.9 rating, his Black Cats could fancy their chances against West Ham and Brentford.

Enzo Maresca steered Chelsea to a fourth-placed finish, ensuring the Blues are back in the Champions League. They could be in with a shout for a potential title challenge and could stamp down their authority with Palace and United among their first five opponents that result in a 91.3 rating.

Premier League Fixture Difficulty (A Mixed Bag)
Rank: Team: First Five Games Opponent Average Rating
11. Brighton & Hove Albion Fulham (H), Everton (A), Manchester City (H), Bournemouth (A), Tottenham Hotspur (H) 92.4
12. Tottenham Hotspur Burnley (H), Manchester City (A), Bournemouth (H), West Ham United (A), Brighton & Hove Albion (A) 92.4
13. Fulham Brighton & Hove Albion (A), Manchester United (H), Chelsea (A), Leeds United (H), Brentford (H) 92.3
14. Sunderland West Ham United (H), Burnley (A), Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Aston Villa (H) 91.9
15. Chelsea Crystal Palace (H), West Ham United (A), Fulham (H), Brentford (A), Manchester United (A) 91.3

Aston Villa and Crystal Palace Lucked Out

Emery and Glasner could make promising starts to the campaign

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The easiest start to the Premier League campaign goes to Aston Villa who face an opponent average of 90.9. Emery was seething at Old Trafford on May 25 but can put that behind him with games against Thomas Frank-less Brentford and newly-promoted Sunderland on the horizon.

Oliver Glasner masterminded Crystal Palace‘s FA Cup triumph and his Eagles face Villa in their first five fixtures that see them join Villa on the same rating. They also meet West Ham United who they beat home and away last season.

West Ham were one of the biggest disappointments and Graham Potter has a job on his hands, winning over fans. An opponent average of 91.0 includes a trip to Sunderland on the opening weekend while they have London meetings with Chelsea and Tottenham.

It will be intriguing to see whether one of the newcomers can adapt to the Premier League and Burnley could be that side. The best defensive team in England last season return to the top-flight with a rating of 91.1 opposition to contend with, although Scott Parker’s Clarets face United and Liverpool in the space of two weeks.

Brentford enter a new era following Frank’s departure and whoever takes over has Nottingham Forest, Villa and Chelsea among their first five opponents to try and impress against. A 91.2 rating could be a huge test for the Bees, who may also be without star man Bryan Mbeumo amid United links.

Premier League Fixture Difficulty (Easiest Five)
Rank: Team: First Five Games Opponent Average Rating
16. Brentford Nottingham Forest (A), Aston Villa (H), Sunderland (A), Chelsea (H), Fulham (A) 91.2
17. Burnley Tottenham Hotspur (A), Sunderland (H), Manchester United (A), Liverpool (H), Nottingham Forest (H) 91.1
18. West Ham United Sunderland (A), Chelsea (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Tottenham Hotsur (H), Crystal Palace (H) 91.0
19. Crystal Palace Chelsea (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Aston Villa (A), Sunderland (H), West Ham United (A) 90.9
19. Aston Villa Newcastle United (H), Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (H), Everton (A), Sunderland (A) 90.9

All data courtesy of Opta – correct as of 18.06.2025

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